We put "sure shot" in quotes because when it comes to business school admissions, nothing is "sure." But if your Exam score and GPA are above the school’s published medians, and your qualifications compare highly favorably to those of current students, then you have to figure that you’d need to make some serious mistakes
to be turned down by a "sure shot" school.
Apply only to schools that you would be willing to attend. No point in wasting your time, energy, and money on a school whose offer you wouldn’t accept in a million years.
Keep the total number of applications down to 10-12. Going beyond this number may compromise your quality control, and that of your recommenders. The larger the number of applications, the more room there is for error.