Extent of energy shotfa 11

It is estimated that Pakistan’s total energy requirement would increase from the present about 54 to about 80 millions-tonnes-of-oil-equivalent (MTOE) in 2010 from. Major shortfall is expected to be in the natural gas supplies. Its demand from the present 27 would go up to 39 MTOE. The power shortage during the same period would be about 5250 MW. Demand for oil would increase from 16.8 to 21 million tons. Deficit of diesel and furnace oil would be 9 million tons. To make up for this huge shortfall the country would need to enhance its dependence on imported oil, thus increasing pressure on foreign exchange situation. The 2005 import bill for oil was $6.5 billion compared to $3.5 billion in 2005 mainly because of higher international prices which are likely to rise further due to aggravating Middle East crisis.

The government has planned five major initiatives to meet country’s energy requirements. They include three gas pipelines, use of Gwadar port as energy hub and import of liquefied natural gas. Power generation capacity, as such, would be enhanced by about 7880MW by 2010. The three gas pipeline projects are: (a) Turkmenistan — Afghanistan — Pakistan Gas Pipeline, (b) Qatar — Pakistan Gas Pipeline, (c) Iran — India — Pakistan Gas Pipeline. While the former two have developed political and technical snags and do not appear to be feasible for the time being, the Iran-India-Pakistan (IPI) project is in sufficiently advanced stage of implementation. It has been delayed due to the difference of views over the pricing formula between the three countries which has since been settled. The other factor was trust deficit between India and Pakistan on account of their strained relations on Kashmir. Originating from Iran the pipeline is to reach India passing through Khuzdar and Multan. India had advanced an alternative proposal of laying pipeline along the sea bed to bypass Pakistan’s territory. The proposal being too costly and unacceptable to Iran has been put in the cold storage. India has given quasi-acceptance to land route pipeline. Work on the project is expected to be completed in 3 to 5 years period. Pakistan and India are facing acute natural gas shortage due to the rising energy demand at home. It is estimated that from 2010 onwards, Pakistan would be facing serious shortage because Sui gas reserves are likely to be depleted in another 30 years time during which Pakistan must explore and discover new reserves if it has to keep pace with progressive development of its economy.