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Pentagon released a report
In February 2004, consultants to the Pentagon released a report laying out the possible impacts of abrupt climate change. In a worst case scenario global warming could make large areas of the world uninhabitable and cause massive food and water shortages.
Natural Green House Effect
The natural greenhouse effect is vital to life on earth, but industrial emissions have boosted the atmosphere’s insulating power. Sun rays come towards the earth and some of the sun’s energy is reflected back to space. Remaining rays are absorbed by the earth. Absorbed heat is radiated back towards space. Natural and man made greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane trap this heat in the atmosphere. Trapped heat re-radiates back towards the earth. In this way earth warming takes place.
Glaciers melt and there comes a rise in sea level and it may spoil the ecological balance. It has been predicted that global warming in the next century may turn out to be much worse than estimated. Rise of atmospheric temperature would be 1’C and the rise in sea level would be 1 meter even if the Green House Gas emissions are stabilized. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that warming could lead to a 6°C rise in temperature by 2100, 2°C higher than the already predicted figure. Global warming may cause heavy rainfalls.
The Hadley Centre, UK has discovered that by 2050 the trees will start falling and there will be less absorption of carbon dioxide. This very Centre fears that by 2100 Antarctica ice would melt away. Melting of sea ice can further accelerate global warming as the ocean surface will not be in a position to reflect as much sunlight as ice sheets.
Afforestation may be one of the solutions to reduce warming as the trees absorb carbon dioxide but it is not a dependable solution. One more problem is feared. Forest area is usually darker than the other areas and it may absorb more sunlight and thus it may cause more warming.
The Adverse Effects of Global Warming
Some of the adverse effects of global warming have been noticed. Antarctica is getting hotter slowly. Venezuelan mountain boasted of 6 glaciers but today it has only two left. Saline water of the sea due to rise in the sea level has covered more land areas and rendered them unfit for cultivation. Deaths from heat waves would increase year-wise.
The rapid growth of emerging economies like Pakistan and China could pose a serious long-term impact on global energy consumption and carbon emission. And if these two countries sit back and continue with the business-as-usual model, carbon emission will be more than double by 2050 causing serious threat to global warming. It is hoped that developed countries particularly the US and Japan will significantly reduce their share of global carbon emission by adopting clean technology, fuel efficient vehicles and developing renewable sources of energy. Currently, US’s share is 22.9 percent of the global share followed by China and Japan at 17.3 percent and 4.9 percent respectively. The US’s share will come down by 16.5 percent by 2025 and further down to 14.5 by the middle of the century. Japan’s share is expected to fall to 3.9 percent by 2025 and 2.7 by 2050.
It is recommended that if countries adopt the ‘Green Growth Plus’ strategy they could control carbon emission and also achieve a healthy growth. The strategy comprises three strands—a broad range of energy efficiency measures, fuel mix changes and new carbon capture and storage technologies. But for the emerging economies it would be difficult to cut down on their emission levels in the next decade because of economic development process.
One report suggests that emerging economies should shift from coal to natural gas in power plants which would reduce carbon emission by upto half. Moreover, fuel efficient vehicles and reduced vehicle use, energy efficient buildings and appliances, and efficient fossil fuel power plants would help reduce carbon emission to a great extent. This could stabilize the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at a level that could reduce the risk of global warming. Scientists suggest biofuels like ethanol as a replacement for gasoline.
Developed countries increasing global warming
Developed countries have played their role in increasing the global warming and now they are advising the developing economies not t do so. Naturally, developing nations are against this double game and hypocrisy but they must see the writing on the wall. Damage has been done and the developing nations must devise means and measures to control and minimize this damage. Here a great responsibility lies on the developed countries. They must help developing nations develop technologies to fight vigorously the menace and it is also desirable that they should liberally transfer their technologies to contain carbon emission otherwise future looks bleak. For example, if global warming continues unchecked glaciers will melt away and the water will flow’ down to the sea and become unportable. When there is no snow-cap, the rivers will dry up. All this will create acute water shortage for drinking and irrigation purposes.
Do we want this?
Not at all. Developed as well as developing countries must sit together to find a sustainable solution to the problem of global warming otherwise the very future of man would be jeopardized. All development would come to naught.
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